Sugar's valuation plunge, copper prices surge, the Arcil IPO and more...

Sugar's valuation plunge, copper prices surge, the Arcil IPO and more...

In this week’s wrapup, we discuss what went wrong with Sugar Cosmetics, whether glass bottles can fill the gap left by aluminium, the Arcil IPO, rising copper prices, and Aditya Birla’s foray into the wires and cables industry.


What went wrong with Sugar Cosmetics?

Sugar Cosmetics once looked like the perfect poster child for India’s D2C beauty boom. Investors bought into the story, and by 2022, the company had reached a valuation of around ₹2,700 crore. But today, that valuation has fallen by nearly 80%.

So what went wrong?

Well, the problem lies in the fact that building a popular beauty brand is much easier than building a profitable one. Sure, Sugar’s digital-first strategy helped it acquire young consumers, but as more brands copied the same playbook, advertising, influencer, and customer-acquisition costs kept rising. And because cosmetics aren’t bought frequently, it can take a long time to recover what a brand spends to acquire each customer than from what they earn from one sale.

So, does this just mean the economics of D2C beauty companies aren't working or is it something else that’s leading to Sugar’s downfall?

Find out more here.

Can glass bottles fill the gap left by aluminium?

Aluminium cans have suddenly become a headache for India’s alcohol and beverage companies. And while the West Asia crisis may seem like the obvious culprit, there’s actually more to it.

A series of events, both global and domestic, has made it surprisingly difficult for companies to get the aluminium they need in the form of cans required to package beverages. And now, with the festive season approaching, they are forced to turn to PET and glass bottles to keep their drinks flowing.

But there’s a catch. This workaround comes with its own set of costs and complications. So, what exactly went wrong? Find out in Tuesday’s story here.

The Arcil IPO explained

India’s banks have made a remarkable recovery from the bad-loan crisis of the last decade. Net bad loans at scheduled commercial banks have fallen from 6% in FY18 to just 0.4% today. But even that tiny percentage still represents thousands of crores of loans that someone needs to recover. And that’s where Arcil comes in.

Arcil buys stressed loans from banks at a discount and then tries to recover as much money as possible from the borrowers. If it buys the loans cheaply enough and recovers more than it paid, it makes money. Sounds simple, right?

Not exactly. You see, the tricky part here is figuring out what a bad loan is actually worth. And even if they get the valuation right, recoveries can take years because legal processes can drag on indefinitely. 

So, can Arcil consistently buy bad loans for less than what it can eventually recover, or is the distressed asset opportunity harder to monetise than it looks?

Find out more in our Wednesday story.

Copper prices are rising again

Copper prices have been climbing relentlessly, crossing $14,500 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME). And while it may seem like just another commodity rally, there’s a lot more going on beneath the surface.

Something has changed in the global copper market, with supply starting to look increasingly uncertain just as the world’s appetite for the metal is growing. Then there’s a rather unusual development involving the threat of US tariffs that’s making the situation even more interesting.

So, why exactly is copper suddenly in such high demand, and what’s pushing prices higher? Read Thursday’s newsletter to find out.

Can Aditya Birla’s Ultravolt Challenge Polycab?

India is building more homes, factories, power lines and data centres than ever before, and all of them need one thing: wires and cables. Naturally, that growing market has caught the attention of the Aditya Birla Group, which has just entered the business with Ultravolt and ₹1,800 crore of investment.

But breaking into this market won’t be easy. Polycab already controls around 30% of the organised market, has thousands of retailers and electricians recommending its products, and sits on a large cash pile that it can use to defend its position. On top of that, several new players are adding capacity at the same time, which could hit the industry’s margins.

So, can Ultravolt become a serious challenger to Polycab while being profitable?

Find out more in our Markets story.


Finshots Weekly Quiz v2.0 🧠

Hey folks! As you probably already know, the Finshots Weekly Quiz has a new avatar. If you missed out on it in the last couple of months, don’t worry. Click here to check out the rules and set a reminder to participate consistently starting next month! 

But for now, it’s time to announce the top scorers of our previous weekly quiz. There were a whole bunch of you who participated, and many of you ended up with the same scores. So we’re calling you Bulls, Bears, Unicorns, Blue Chips, and Rising Stars. Here’s how the leaderboard looks right now:

Check out the annexure below 👇🏽 to see the names of the top scorers

If your name has been featured on the leaderboard, then congratulations! If not, don’t lose hope. If you attempted last week’s quiz, keep at it and answer all the weekly quizzes this month. You never know when the turntables! Click on this link to take this week’s quiz, which is open till 12 noon, Friday, 18th of September, 2026. The more answers you get right, the better your chances of appearing on the Finshots Weekly Quiz leaderboard. We’ll publish it every Saturday in the Weekly Wrapup. And the winner will be announced in the first week of September. 

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