In today’s Finshots, we explain how climate change could spell trouble for fish as well as the seafood industry.

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The Story

When you think of the ocean, you might picture schools of fish darting through vibrant coral reefs. And fish are not just a feast for the eyes. They’re a nutritional powerhouse, packed with high-quality protein, vitamins and minerals. For many, especially in coastal regions, fish is a staple food and a crucial part of their livelihood.

But what if we told you that the real story brewing beneath the waves involves creatures so tiny you’d need a microscope to see them?

Meet Prokaryotes — the ocean’s oldest and most resilient residents. These microscopic organisms, primarily bacteria, play a crucial role in keeping our oceans in balance. They make up 30% of life in our oceans and are the unsung heroes of marine ecosystems, responsible for breaking down organic matter and maintaining nutrient cycles.

But soon these creatures are about to wreak havoc in oceans.

And it’s not us saying that but a recent report by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) which confirms that fish stocks are headed towards a significant decline, primarily due to climate change.

For starters, elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) levels are making the oceans more acidic, posing a survival challenge for something called Phytoplanktons. These are tiny organisms that are also a primary food source for small fish. So, as phytoplankton struggle with elevated CO2 levels, the small fish find it harder to access the food they need.

Not just that. Warmer waters create low-oxygen "dead zones" where marine life struggles to survive. Additionally, rising sea temperatures are pushing fish toward cooler waters, disrupting their growth and reproduction.

And as if that weren’t enough, the loss of coastal habitats like coral reefs and mangroves is depriving fish of their breeding grounds and shelters.

But how are Prokaryotes about to add to this trouble? After all, aren't they supposed to strike a balance in the ocean?

You see, the real culprit here, again is climate change.

Because as climate change warms up our oceans, Prokaryotes become more dominant. And because they are adaptable, they can handle climate change better than larger marine creatures. For instance, every degree of ocean warming pushes the total weight of Prokaryotes down by just 1.5%, but larger marine creatures like fish could see a larger drop of 3% to 5%.

And here's the catch - as climate change progresses, it will lead to Prokaryotes taking over the ocean. As their population rises in comparison to other marine life, they would also alter the availability of essential nutrients in the ocean. So if Prokaryotes consume more nutrients that other marine creatures - like fish - rely on, it could disrupt the balance of marine ecosystems. And it could further contribute to the decline in fish populations.

So what’s the big issue with that, you ask?

Well, it could very well affect the enormous fishing industry.

You see, fish indisputably form a vital part of the global food supply, serving as a primary source of protein for around 3 billion people. And if we were to look at the money involved, the global seafood industry was valued at $500 billion in 2022.

So, if fish populations start to dwindle, it could very well mean less industry revenue and higher consumer prices.

Take India, for instance. In many states, especially in the northeastern and eastern regions, as well as Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Goa, over 90% of the population consumes fish. Coastal communities too depend heavily on fisheries, particularly in states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal.

And almost 3.8 million people living along the coast depend on fishing for their livelihood. The industry also plays a significant role in our economy, contributing around $8.1 billion in foreign exchange through marine exports annually.

Moreover, fish doesn't just offer nutritional bang for the buck - it's also an accessible source of protein. It has long been a staple in coastal regions, where the sea is a stone's throw away. And economically speaking, with marine resources aplenty, fishing becomes a cost-effective food source compared to other protein-rich foods like meat or poultry. This is why coastal communities have depended on fishing as their primary livelihood for centuries and it seems nearly 72% of Indians include fish in their diets.

So clearly, a decline in fish populations could be catastrophic, leading to reduced catches, lower revenue, and higher consumer prices. And this domino effect could ripple through the entire seafood supply chain—from fishers to processors—potentially resulting in annual economic losses in thousands of crores.

And it’s not just about the domestic market. Because India is also a major player in the global seafood export market, with its largest buyers being China, the US, the EU, Southeast Asian countries, and Japan. In fact, the government hit an all-time high in seafood exports, raking in Rs 63,969.14 crores during the financial year 2022-23.

And India has even set an ambitious goal to increase seafood exports to Rs 1 trillion in the next two years.

But if Prokaryotes continue to dominate the oceans, this dream could be jeopardised. They will continue to multiply, corner resources, produce more carbon dioxide, accelerate climate change even further, and really decimate marine population.

So yeah, it's a vicious cycle. And it shows us how climate change could have impacts beyond what we can fathom.

The real question is: Can we adapt fast enough to protect both our plate and our planet?

Well, we will probably have to wait and see.

Until then…

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