In today’s Finshots, we look at how TRAI's new rule could spark a billion-dollar face-off between satellite internet players and what it means for India’s digital future.

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The Story

You’re standing on a remote hilltop or sailing somewhere off India’s coast where there’s not a single telecom tower in sight. But your internet still works. You can stream, send an SOS, run a business call. All because a small dish on your roof is talking to a satellite up in space.

This is the promise of satellite internet. And recently, India just took a giant leap to bring it closer to reality.

TRAI, India’s telecom regulator, released a recommendation: satellite spectrum—which are basically radio waves that let satellites beam internet from space—will not be auctioned like regular telecom spectrum. Instead, it’ll be allocated administratively. Satellite companies will pay a usage fee of just 4% of their adjusted gross revenue (AGR). In cities, they’ll pay a bit more per user. But there’s no billion-dollar bidding war or upfront price tags. Just regulatory clearance, and off they go.

Now, all of this may sound like policy mumbo-jumbo. But simply put, it’s a greenlight for satellite internet companies. The likes of Elon Musk’s Starlink, Bharti-backed OneWeb, Amazon’s Project Kuiper or Jio’s SES joint venture. They can finally roll out commercial services across India.

What’s more interesting is how we got here. Because until recently, this decision was at the centre of a turf war. You see, India’s telecom industry is built on spectrum auctions. Telcos like Jio and Airtel have spent billions buying spectrum for mobile services. But satellites operate differently. Instead of beaming signals from towers on the ground, they talk directly to rooftop terminals. No ground infrastructure needed. And since satellite spectrum is globally shared and coordinated by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), most countries don’t auction it. They just assign it.

That’s what satellite companies wanted in India too. But telcos pushed back hard. If satellite firms got spectrum on the cheap and started offering broadband in urban areas, they argued, it would be a regulatory mismatch. They’d paid top dollar for 4G and 5G rights — and now someone else could enter the same market through the side door? So they pushed for auctions.

But TRAI wasn’t convinced. After months of consultations, it said that satellites and mobile towers aren’t the same. Satellite capacity is limited, the spectrum is shared, and the tech isn’t as flexible. Satellites can’t match the existing terrestrial networks in performance, at least not yet. Instead, they fill in the gaps in places like deserts, forests, the Himalayas, where towers don’t make sense.

And that’s what brings us full circle to today. The final TRAI plan looks like this: a 4% revenue share model, ₹3,500 per megahertz (MHz) as the minimum annual charge, a ₹500 charge per urban subscriber, no fees for rural users, and a review after five years.

And this changes things for satellite internet companies.

Starlink already has a Letter of Intent from the Department of Telecommunications. All that’s left is security clearance from IN-SPACe, India’s space activity regulator. OneWeb and Jio-SES are further ahead; they’ve already done successful trials in states. And now, with regulatory clarity in hand, they can move faster — build ground stations, plan capex, launch services.

But don’t expect an easy ride. The bigger conflict here isn’t just technical but also a geopolitical and economic one.

Starlink’s parent company SpaceX has deep ties with the US military. Drug smugglers in the Indian Ocean were using them too. That’s why the government now wants all satellite operators to set up control centres within India. So it can enforce shutdowns, track traffic and localise user data.

Then there’s the price problem. Starlink kits abroad cost over ₹30,000 upfront, and monthly subscriptions are around ₹8,000. Even with subsidies, that’s a steep bill for rural India. TRAI has suggested subsidies for remote users, but we don’t know how that’ll play out yet.

And while satellite broadband may be expensive, the opportunity is massive. Millions of Indians still lack reliable internet. So satellites might seem like a viable option in the next decade. Even if Starlink captures just 10% of that pie, it could rake in billions, most of which would leave India unless local players scale up fast.

That’s why this isn't just about the internet. It’s about digital power.

And that’s where the peers in this space would look to compete.

Still, Starlink already controls over half the world’s low-earth orbit (LEO) satellites. SpaceX is working on Starshield — a military-grade version of its network. So the competition is tough.

India, meanwhile, wants to build its own space economy, projected to grow from 2% to 8% of global share by 2033. It wants rural broadband to reach 100% penetration. And satellites might be the only way to hit those targets fast.

Globally, satellite broadband is projected to be an over $100 billion industry in the next 10 years. India alone could account for a significant share if things go right. But that’ll only happen if the spectrum isn’t stuck in regulatory purgatory.

So yeah, TRAI’s recommendation is India’s first move in that game. And it tries to walk a fine line — allow global players, protect domestic ones and keep national security front and centre.

For companies, what comes next — pricing, adoption, competition and policy — will decide who truly wins. Both Jio and Airtel are already knee-deep in the satcom game. The real test would be making it affordable and scalable.

But for all that to move ahead, the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) and Cabinet will have to ratify TRAI’s proposal, finalise the regulations and initiate the spectrum allocation process. And only time will tell how swiftly all of this moves from policy on paper to internet from the satellite.

Until then…

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