In today’s Finshots, we talk about the economic cost of a delayed census.

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With that out of the way, let’s get on to today’s story.

The Story

If you grew up in the 90s or early 2000s, you may remember the census (from 2011). Maybe a friendly enumerator knocked on your door, asking questions about your household — how many people lived there, your education level and if you have access to basic amenities like a washroom.

Fast forward to 2024, and here we are, gearing up for another round of this once-in-a-decade ritual.

But this one’s a little late — actually, three years late. Sure, you could blame it on the pandemic and the government’s intention to shift from pen-and-paper to digital tabulation, but this delay is more than just a minor inconvenience. In fact, it’s causing some serious complications.

So, why does the census matter so much, you ask?

You see, the census is not just a routine headcount of the population. It’s like the ultimate data treasure trove. It shapes how we understand our country — who lives where, how cities are expanding and what kind of social policies need tweaking. It’s the bedrock for everything from planning welfare schemes to building political strategies.

To get the full picture, you could take a quick trip down memory lane to past censuses. In 1991 and 2011, for instance, the numbers revealed something shocking. There was a steep drop in the child sex ratio in states like Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat. In simple terms, people were aborting female babies and in favour of male children. This disturbing trend forced the government to step in. They introduced the Pre-Conception and Pre-Natal Diagnostic Techniques (Prohibition of Sex Selection) Act in 1994 to crack down on female foeticide. And by 2015, the Beti Bachao Beti Padhao campaign came into play, tackling gender bias head-on.

Or you could consider the rapid urbanisation trend captured by the 2001 and 2011 censuses. That data prompted governments to launch initiatives like the JNNURM (Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission) in 2005, followed by the Smart Cities Mission and AMRUT (Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation). These were all aimed at making Indian cities more liveable, sustainable and well-managed.

Plus, census data isn’t just about numbers. It’s key for deciding how resources get distributed. The education department, for example, depends on this data to support states with lower literacy rates and the Finance Commission decides how to allocate funds.

But here’s the problem. Today we’re still stuck using data from the 2011 census because the 2021 census got delayed. And this means that the outdated information is now impacting a wide range of thing.

For starters, food security could be at risk. Just look at the NFSA (National Food Security Act), which promises subsidised food grains to two thirds of the population. This ratio though, is based on the 2011 census data. But since then, India’s population has grown significantly, meaning over 10 crore people may now be missing out on this essential support.

Deccan Herald even puts a face to this problem. It says that in 2019, a single mother in Delhi applied for a ration card. Five years later, her application is still ‘waitlisted’ because the outdated census data hasn’t been updated, meaning she and many like her can’t access subsidised food grains under the PDS (Public Distribution System).

This isn’t just a bureaucratic hiccup, it’s the difference between putting food on the table and going hungry for many vulnerable families, including migrant workers and the elderly.

And it doesn’t stop at food, employment is at stake too. The MGNREGS (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme), which provides wage employment to millions of rural households, also relies on census data to allocate funds. Without updated figures, the scheme struggles to serve its purpose effectively, potentially leaving countless households in the lurch.

Then, there are critical issues like migration, urbanisation and demographic changes. States like Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Delhi, which see a large influx of migrant workers, are forced to make policy decisions based on obsolete numbers. That’s like trying to navigate a fast-moving city with a decade-old map. It just doesn’t work.

Another interesting thing is that census data does more than just count heads. It also validates other key surveys.

Take the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey, for instance. It’s conducted every five years to track how families spend their money. The Periodic Labour Force Survey examines job trends quarterly in cities and annually in rural areas. The National Family Health Survey evaluates health metrics to guide healthcare planning.

These surveys use samples to represent the whole population, but the census covers everyone, providing a crucial check on their accuracy. This process, known as “triangulation of data”, involves cross-checking information from various sources to ensure reliability. In short, reliable census data ensures that these surveys give us a true picture of the economy.

And finally, there’s the matter of delimitation. Think of it as the process of redrawing electoral boundaries directly tied to population shifts captured by the census, whose results will be out by 2026. By then India’s population is expected to reach 1.46 billion and this data will be crucial for reshaping electoral constituencies to ensure fair representation. For instance, Karnataka might see its Lok Sabha seats increase from 28 to 36, while Uttar Pradesh could jump from 80 to 128 seats. But Kerala, with its more controlled population growth, might see a slight reduction in its Lok Sabha seats.

Without accurate census data, this crucial political process could be based on outdated assumptions, leading to unequal representation and resource distribution.

So, what’s the solution?

Well, it’s pretty straightforward. We need to prioritise getting the census back on track because as you’ve seen, the stakes are too high to let it linger. Accurate data is the foundation for almost everything in the economy. The sooner we complete the census, the sooner we can start fixing the gaps it’s left behind and build policies on solid, up-to-date information rather than outdated numbers.

In a rapidly changing country like India, the cost of delay is simply too big to ignore. Besides, seeing that countries like the UK, China and the US have managed to complete their censuses despite severe COVID outbreaks, should push us to act faster. So yeah, the long due 2021 census isn’t just a formality, it’s a necessity.

Until then, the nation waits, ready for the numbers that will shape its future.

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