Hey folks!

Imagine this. In a few years, snagging a doctorate or even a Nobel Prize might just get a bit easier. Crazy, right?

But why do we think so?

Well, it’s all thanks to OpenAI and their latest project, codenamed Strawberry. This idea, previously known as Q*, came about because the AI (Artificial Intelligence) models we have today can’t quite tackle those tricky science and maths questions. Their reasoning skills are just not up to par. Plus, they tend to hallucinate – and no, not in a psychedelic way!

You see, while these large language models are great at summarising texts, crafting beautiful poems and explaining tough concepts faster than we can, they struggle with common sense problems that seem obvious to us. Think, recognising logical fallacies or playing tic-tac-toe. When faced with these, they often spit out completely made-up information.

This happens because AI models are trained on existing data, and if this data is incomplete or biassed, they pick up on that and learn the wrong patterns. This is why they sometimes make incorrect predictions or, as we like to say, hallucinate.

Enter Strawberry. The goal here is to fix these issues. Imagine an AI that, after its initial training, can generate its own training data to fine-tune what it knows. This would help it improve its reasoning skills and understand the world more like we do. With this approach, the AI might stop hallucinating and start solving complex research problems that have stumped us for years.

So, brace yourselves! We might soon need more human therapists to keep us sane as AI gets smarter and makes us feel dumber by comparison!

Here’s a soundtrack to put you in the mood 🎵

Muskurahat by MITRAZ

Thanks for the rec, Gauri Vaidyanathan!

A couple of things caught our eye this week 👀

Can Reliance beat Decathlon?

Reliance is eyeing a big slice of the sports market pie, and they're aiming to take on giants like Decathlon!

But can they really pull it off?

Well, here’s the scoop. Reliance is no newbie in the sports world. They’ve owned the IPL team Mumbai Indians for over a decade. They jumped into sports streaming a few years back, and in 2020, made a bold move by buying out IMG Reliance Limited, rebranding it as RISE Worldwide Limited. This company is all about creating, managing and commercialising sports, fashion and entertainment events in India.

Plus, Reliance Foundation, their nonprofit arm, is hosting the first-ever India House at the Paris Olympics starting July 26th. These Olympic Hospitality Houses are all about showcasing a country's culture and giving athletes and fans a place to celebrate.

And what’s missing from Reliance’s grand sports plan is an exclusive sports retail brand.

With over 73 million sq. ft. of retail space under their belt, housing more than 100 local and global brands across India, Reliance’s presence in the retail space is already massive — three times that of Tata Group’s! And with Reliance Retail being the conglomerate's fastest-growing business, this move seems like a smart bet. Considering that global brands like Puma, Decathlon, Adidas, Skechers and Asics have grown 35-60% year-on-year from FY21 to FY23, Reliance wants in on the action.

They also have a competitive edge thanks to India’s FDI (foreign direct investment) rules.

See, global brands like Decathlon face restrictions because India allows 100% FDI in single-brand retail but not in multi-brand retail. This means different products can’t be sold under one brand. Decathlon, which sells everything from running shoes to mountaineering gear under its own labels in India, is pushing the government to change this because rival brands account for a fifth of Decathlon's revenue. And a change could help boost its profits. But while they wait, Reliance can swoop in and capitalise on the growing sports and fitness craze in India.

And with the government also keen on bidding to host the 2036 Olympics, Reliance has plenty of time to gear up.

Who knows? By then, their sports athleisure brand might even be a sponsor, spreading their name globally. It’s a big vision, but that’s Reliance for you! And it’s proof that Reliance has the might to take on global brands like Decathlon. What say you?

***

World Population Day (July 11) Special: Population decline? The economy might embrace it

In 1994, Stanford University researchers suggested our ideal population size should be 1.5 to 2 billion. Fast forward to today, we’re at over 8 billion and still counting. And by 2058, we might even hit 10 billion!

But hold on… There’s a twist.

Experts predict the global population will peak around the 2080s and then possibly decline. All thanks to declining fertility rates worldwide. From nearly 5 children per woman in 1950, we're down to just 2.2 in 2021. And by the end of the century, it could drop further to 1.59 – below the replacement level needed for growth.

Does this mean more ageing folks, fewer young workers and potential economic challenges?

Well, yeah. But there’s a silver lining.

Klaus Prettner, an economics professor at the Vienna University of Economics and Business, suggests that investments in technology and education can help offset population declines. With fewer children per family, there's more opportunity to invest in quality education. Governments can also ramp up investments in technology and robotics to fill gaps in the labour force. (Greece might also be able to scrap its newly introduced six-day workweek, attributing it to a shrinking population and a shortage of skilled workers. 😉) Plus, more women entering the workforce can help close global gender gaps.

And here’s a kicker. A smaller population could seriously tackle our climate crisis by significantly reducing carbon footprints. Research indicates that simply having 1 fewer child in developed countries could cut each person's carbon emissions by a whopping 58 tonnes annually. That’s 24 times the savings from not having a car!

So, balancing population growth with economic and environmental needs could pave the way for a brighter future. Embracing these changes and working towards a sustainable planet for future generations is our best bet. What do you think?

Jargon of the day ✏️

This Day in Financial History 📜

11th of July, 1893 ― Kokichi Mikimoto succeeded in culturing a semi-spherical pearl

On this day, Kokichi Mikimoto, a humble Japanese man who once sold vegetables and charcoal to make ends meet, achieved the unthinkable. He successfully cultured a pearl — a feat deemed biologically impossible back then! This groundbreaking moment didn’t just turn the jewellery world on its head; it sparked a billion dollar industry.

But there's more to this story.

Mikimoto wasn’t the first to culture pearls. The Chinese had been at it for centuries. What set him apart was that he was the first to create fully round, lustrous pearls – the Akoya pearls we adore today.

Born in 1858, Mikimoto’s fascination with pearls was sparked during his childhood, when he watched the pearl divers of Japan’s Ise coast unloading their treasures at the shore. And as natural pearls grew scarce from overharvesting, he saw the potential in cultured pearls.

His journey began at the National Exhibit for the Promotion of Industry, where he learned the art of pearl culturing. Inspired, he dove deep into research and secured his first patent for cultured pearls.

Mikimoto and his wife Ume started their first pearl farm a few years later. And despite facing intense public scepticism for his strange trial and error experiments, he succeeded in 1893, creating the first semi-spherical cultured pearl. But Mikimoto didn’t stop there. He wanted perfection or perfectly round pearls. He achieved this milestone by 1905, revolutionising the pearl industry.

A couple of decades later, Mikimoto's pearls were all the rage worldwide. Even Thomas Edison famously called them "one of the wonders of the world." Mikimoto's vision and perseverance truly paid off, transforming his pearls into a global sensation.

The Mikimoto Pearl Store he established didn't just stay in Japan. By 1913, there was a store in London, quickly followed by openings in Paris, New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Shanghai and Bombay.

Today, the global pearl jewellery market is worth nearly $3 billion, with projections to reach over $40 billion by 2031. And while natural pearls remain rare and pricey, cultured pearls dominate the market, making these timeless gems accessible and highly sought after.

So, the next time you are in awe of a strand of pearls, remember Kokichi Mikimoto’s incredible journey from a small town in Japan to the pinnacle of the pearl world! 🦪

Readers Recommend 🗒️

Last week, one of our readers had recommended reading Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

But Gaurav Roy, another reader of ours, suggests that reading Fooled by Randomness by the same author (Taleb) would be some great prep to understand the concepts dealt with in The Black Swan.

In fact, Gaurav recommends reading these books in this order (all by the same author):

1. Fooled by Randomness
2. The Black Swan
3. Antifragile
4. Skin in the Game

Thanks for this Gaurav!

Finshots Weekly Quiz 🧩

We’ve moved the quiz to our weekly wrapup. So make sure you answer all the questions correctly by 12 noon on July 20, 2024 (Saturday) and tune in here next week to check if you got lucky.

That’s it from us this week. We’ll see you next Sunday.

Until then, don’t forget to tell us what you thought of today’s newsletter. And send us your book, music, business movies, documentaries or podcast recommendations. We’ll feature them in the newsletter! Just hit reply to this email (or if you’re reading this on the web, drop us a message: morning@finshots.in).

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